Few Ballistic Missile Analysis w/ Aerospace-SIM - Part. 7 - Hwasong 17 (Comparing Size)

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Aerodynamics Series

 

 Brugge (http://www.b14643.de/) brought good speculation about specification of Hwasong-17 which have some different assumption compare to mine (Few Ballistic Missile Analysis w/ Aerospace-SIM - Part. 5 - Hwasong 12, 15, and 17). 

Brugge's model do not assume that 2nd stage of Hwasong-17 is not larged from 15's; it requires heavier 1st stage than mine and assumed portion (7~11%) of 1st stage can brought proper range speculation.  

--- ICBM

3. Hwasong-17 (based on Brugge's Model)

Few Ballistic Missile Analysis w/ Aerospace-SIM - Part. 6 - Hyunmoo GrandSlam as ICBM (Hyunmoo Ultimate)?

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Aerodynamics Series

 

 Hyunmoo GrandSlam expected to deliver 8t warhead in 300km range is larger than its predecessors and weights about more than 40t. It is close to other solid-fueled 3 staged ICBM, and there is a possibility that S.Korea can modify Hyunmoo GrandSlam as a ICBM. 

 It means that last 3rd stage should be packed in 8t weight which was weight of simple warhead. Let's find out does it make sense or not. 

--- ICBM

4. Hyunmoo GrandSlam as 3 stage rocket

 There is a slight increase (41.4 -> 42.1t) of TOW (42.6t for 1.0t warhead), but basically same rocket motor can be integrated to 3rd stage for more range w/ smaller warhead (0.5 and 1.0t)

Summary

- It is a WHAT-IF missile that Hyunmoo-GrandSlam adopting 3rd stage rocket instead of 8t warhead, calling it "Hyunmoo Ultimate"

- 3rd stage is assumed as that of 2nd stage to save development time (but usually developing explicit 3rd)

- Result of 1t warhead is not much different when the GrandSlam just change its warhead. 

- 3rd stage w/ 0.5t warhead truely become the Major ICBM level. 

- Compare to North Korean's Hwasong 15 and 17, Hyunmoo-Ultimate is very compact and has operation advantage due to its fuel type if Hyunmoo adopted 3rd stage. 

Few Ballistic Missile Analysis w/ Aerospace-SIM - Part. 5 - Hwasong 12, 15, and 17

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Aerodynamics Series

 

 Hwasong series 12~17 are the most powerful and biggest ballistic missiles in North Korea. Precise specification of them are not revealed but this article analyze them as far as possible w/ reasonable guess. Table of contents (b14643.de) that site helps a lot for configurating DB of missiles. Except that Hwasong 15 requires 0.5t warhead to achieve 13000km range, most of speculated DB is well suited. 

--- MRBM & ICBM

1. Hwasong-12

2. Hwasong-15

3. Hwasong-17

Summary

- Ballistic trajectory of most recent Hwasong series

- Hwasong-12 is very unique heavy-single stage missile reaching limit of single stage missile. 

- Hwasong-15 is like 70's ICBM now as heavy liquid space rocket, its trajectory is different from others. I think Hwasong-17 is prepared for heavier payload (~1t) for similar range; as a ICBM, more range is un-necesssary. 

- Specification of Hwasong-17 is estimated from scale-law of Hwasong-17; it become weight more than 110t to achieve XX km range w/ 1.0t warhead truly enough as ICBM. 

- However, liquid-fueled rocket is still unstatisfied as military rocket even with TEL, so, next or final phase of N.K will be three-staged solid-fuel rocket which is totally different from Hwasong-series. 

- As a liquid fueled rocket, Hwasong-17 reaches the final milestone, IMO. 

* Special Thanks to  Norbert Brügge for my ballistic missile series.

Few Ballistic Missile Analysis w/ Aerospace-SIM - Part. 4 - Hyunmoo IIC, IV-1, and GrandSlam

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Aerodynamics Series

 

 ROK developed GtG missile as the name series of Hyunmoo although Hyunmoo I is transformed version of Hercules missile. Recent Hyunmoo II ~ IV shows powerful tactical performance in relatively short range because their missiles are in missile-performance treaty. 

 Hyunmoo II A/B are very similar to Iskander-M series I hope you see this at the previous articles. From Hyunmoo IIC, it has their own identical performance compared to its predecessors. 

 While Hyunmoo II C is similar to Pershing II, Hyunmoo IV and 8t-Bunkerbuster are very interesting. 

(Hyunmoo III is cruising missile and IV-2, 3 variants are SLBM)

--- SRBM & MRBM

4. Hyunmoo IIC, IV-1, and GrandSlam

Summary

- Hyunmoo IIC, similar to Pershing II, has longer range than its predecessor with M10 speed. 

- Hyunmoo IV estimated at 15t MTOW has various operation specification for Bunker-Busting regarded as important mission in ROK. I assumed that 2nd stage of Hyunmoo IV is the 1st stage of IIC w/ newly updated 2X size of 1st stage of IIC. 

- 8t Bunkerbuster is totally out-classing other Hyunmoo series in its weight. If it has two-stage, it reaches limit of that style. This could deliver 8t warhead for short range as bunker-busting while 1.0t standard warhead fly up to 6000km. More range probably requires three-stage. I assumed that 2nd stage of 8t-Bunkerbuster is 1st stage of Hyunmoo IV considering its short-time development time phase. 

Few Ballistic Missile Analysis w/ Aerospace-SIM - Part. 1 - SCUD

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Aerodynamics Series

 

 I had analyzed famous SCUD missiles that verify the updated Aerospace-SIM; updated Aerospace-SIM achieve prediction capability of the free-fall ballistic trajectory essential for ballistic missile. 

 SCUD is very famous and well know specification for the modeling [1]. This project will expanded for ballistic missiles in Korean penensula. SCUD is the good starting point for more advanced missiles like ATACMS, Iskander-M, and more. 

 SCUD-B and SCUD-ER, updated version of NK will be shown

--- SRBM

1. SCUD-B / ER

Summary

- Ballistic trajectory of the missile is well shown and caclulated by the Aerospace-SIM

- SCUD-B shows 300km Range w/ Mach 4.5 maximum speed.

- Lightend warhead (500kg) extends its range for 500km w/ Mach 6.0 speed. 

- N.K's much larger SCUD-ER could reach ~1000km 

- If SCUD-ER has same warhead of SCUD-B range is reduced to 700km

[1] Schiller, M and Schmucker, R. H., 2016, Flashback to the Past: North Korea’s “New” Extended-Range Scud