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2023년 5월 16일 화요일
2022년 4월 2일 토요일
Few Ballistic Missile Analysis w/ Aerospace-SIM - Part. 7 - Hwasong 17 (Comparing Size)
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Brugge (http://www.b14643.de/) brought good speculation about specification of Hwasong-17 which have some different assumption compare to mine (Few Ballistic Missile Analysis w/ Aerospace-SIM - Part. 5 - Hwasong 12, 15, and 17).
Brugge's model do not assume that 2nd stage of Hwasong-17 is not larged from 15's; it requires heavier 1st stage than mine and assumed portion (7~11%) of 1st stage can brought proper range speculation.
--- ICBM
3. Hwasong-17 (based on Brugge's Model)
2022년 3월 26일 토요일
Few Ballistic Missile Analysis w/ Aerospace-SIM - Part. 6 - Hyunmoo GrandSlam as ICBM (Hyunmoo Ultimate)?
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Hyunmoo GrandSlam expected to deliver 8t warhead in 300km range is larger than its predecessors and weights about more than 40t. It is close to other solid-fueled 3 staged ICBM, and there is a possibility that S.Korea can modify Hyunmoo GrandSlam as a ICBM.
It means that last 3rd stage should be packed in 8t weight which was weight of simple warhead. Let's find out does it make sense or not.
--- ICBM
4. Hyunmoo GrandSlam as 3 stage rocket
There is a slight increase (41.4 -> 42.1t) of TOW (42.6t for 1.0t warhead), but basically same rocket motor can be integrated to 3rd stage for more range w/ smaller warhead (0.5 and 1.0t)
Summary
- It is a WHAT-IF missile that Hyunmoo-GrandSlam adopting 3rd stage rocket instead of 8t warhead, calling it "Hyunmoo Ultimate"
- 3rd stage is assumed as that of 2nd stage to save development time (but usually developing explicit 3rd)
- Result of 1t warhead is not much different when the GrandSlam just change its warhead.
- 3rd stage w/ 0.5t warhead truely become the Major ICBM level.
- Compare to North Korean's Hwasong 15 and 17, Hyunmoo-Ultimate is very compact and has operation advantage due to its fuel type if Hyunmoo adopted 3rd stage.
2022년 3월 25일 금요일
Few Ballistic Missile Analysis w/ Aerospace-SIM - Part. 5 - Hwasong 12, 15, and 17
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Hwasong series 12~17 are the most powerful and biggest ballistic missiles in North Korea. Precise specification of them are not revealed but this article analyze them as far as possible w/ reasonable guess. Table of contents (b14643.de) that site helps a lot for configurating DB of missiles. Except that Hwasong 15 requires 0.5t warhead to achieve 13000km range, most of speculated DB is well suited.
--- MRBM & ICBM
1. Hwasong-12
2. Hwasong-15
Summary
- Ballistic trajectory of most recent Hwasong series
- Hwasong-12 is very unique heavy-single stage missile reaching limit of single stage missile.
- Hwasong-15 is like 70's ICBM now as heavy liquid space rocket, its trajectory is different from others. I think Hwasong-17 is prepared for heavier payload (~1t) for similar range; as a ICBM, more range is un-necesssary.
- Specification of Hwasong-17 is estimated from scale-law of Hwasong-17; it become weight more than 110t to achieve XX km range w/ 1.0t warhead truly enough as ICBM.
- However, liquid-fueled rocket is still unstatisfied as military rocket even with TEL, so, next or final phase of N.K will be three-staged solid-fuel rocket which is totally different from Hwasong-series.
- As a liquid fueled rocket, Hwasong-17 reaches the final milestone, IMO.
* Special Thanks to Norbert Brügge for my ballistic missile series.
Few Ballistic Missile Analysis w/ Aerospace-SIM - Part. 4 - Hyunmoo IIC, IV-1, and GrandSlam
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ROK developed GtG missile as the name series of Hyunmoo although Hyunmoo I is transformed version of Hercules missile. Recent Hyunmoo II ~ IV shows powerful tactical performance in relatively short range because their missiles are in missile-performance treaty.
Hyunmoo II A/B are very similar to Iskander-M series I hope you see this at the previous articles. From Hyunmoo IIC, it has their own identical performance compared to its predecessors.
While Hyunmoo II C is similar to Pershing II, Hyunmoo IV and 8t-Bunkerbuster are very interesting.
(Hyunmoo III is cruising missile and IV-2, 3 variants are SLBM)
--- SRBM & MRBM
4. Hyunmoo IIC, IV-1, and GrandSlam
Summary
- Hyunmoo IIC, similar to Pershing II, has longer range than its predecessor with M10 speed.
- Hyunmoo IV estimated at 15t MTOW has various operation specification for Bunker-Busting regarded as important mission in ROK. I assumed that 2nd stage of Hyunmoo IV is the 1st stage of IIC w/ newly updated 2X size of 1st stage of IIC.
- 8t Bunkerbuster is totally out-classing other Hyunmoo series in its weight. If it has two-stage, it reaches limit of that style. This could deliver 8t warhead for short range as bunker-busting while 1.0t standard warhead fly up to 6000km. More range probably requires three-stage. I assumed that 2nd stage of 8t-Bunkerbuster is 1st stage of Hyunmoo IV considering its short-time development time phase.
2022년 3월 19일 토요일
Few Ballistic Missile Analysis w/ Aerospace-SIM - Part. 3 - Iskander-M & Kh-47M Kinzhal
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There is a previous result for Iskander-M and Kh-47M in my blog (https://jaesan-aero.blogspot.com/2019/11/missile-sim-performance-evaluation-for.html), however, it did not fully consier free-fall ballistic trajectory. So, it has some distance from real-world trajectory. This revision provides far-better trajectory than the previous one w/ improved estimation
I updated some specification
--- SRBM
3. Iskander-M and Kh-47M (Revised)
Summary
- Iskander-M having enough room for warhead and propellant shows better kinematic performance than ATACMS.
- Depressed shot can go 370km range without exceeding 50km altitude.
- Reduced warhead weight extend range for 700km
- Reduced warhead weight version as Kh-47M could reach Hypersonic region M10.3 with 1700km range; Russian's announcment for 2000km operation range for MiG-31 and 3000km+ for Tu-22M can be analyzed via missile's pure range.
- It is very versatile tatical or limited-strategic option for missile strike.
2022년 3월 18일 금요일
Few Ballistic Missile Analysis w/ Aerospace-SIM - Part. 2 - ATACMS
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As a continued series of missile analysis, 2nd topic is ATACMS, one of favorite and well known tactical missile. Due to its light weight and compactness, variants are well proposed like attachment of booster or air-launched one.
However, we could only see block I and IV while Iskander series has more interesting variants. This page shows estimated trajectory of ATACMS block I, IV and their potential variants for fun purpose.
--- SRBM
2. ATACMS (Revised)
There is a previous result for ATACMS in my blog (https://jaesan-aero.blogspot.com/2019/11/missile-sim-performance-evaluation-for.html), however, it did not fully consier free-fall ballistic trajectory. So, it has some distance from real-world trajectory. This revision provides far-better trajectory than the previous one w/ improved estimation.
Summary
- ATACMS block I range can be extended to that of block IV as change of warhead size, but its full potential is not used due to MTCR (<300km)
- Similar to Iskander, Air-launch could extend it range for two times and about 1t booster can make similar impact on the range.
- Due to its compactness, Air-launch + Booster option is viable for large tactical aircraft; this option can deliver 560kg warhead for 880km while 230kg warhead for 1470km. But stiffning of existing ATACMS structure for high speed is another matter for these kinds of variants.
2022년 3월 14일 월요일
Few Ballistic Missile Analysis w/ Aerospace-SIM - Part. 1 - SCUD
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I had analyzed famous SCUD missiles that verify the updated Aerospace-SIM; updated Aerospace-SIM achieve prediction capability of the free-fall ballistic trajectory essential for ballistic missile.
SCUD is very famous and well know specification for the modeling [1]. This project will expanded for ballistic missiles in Korean penensula. SCUD is the good starting point for more advanced missiles like ATACMS, Iskander-M, and more.
SCUD-B and SCUD-ER, updated version of NK will be shown
--- SRBM
1. SCUD-B / ER
Summary
- Ballistic trajectory of the missile is well shown and caclulated by the Aerospace-SIM
- SCUD-B shows 300km Range w/ Mach 4.5 maximum speed.
- Lightend warhead (500kg) extends its range for 500km w/ Mach 6.0 speed.
- N.K's much larger SCUD-ER could reach ~1000km
- If SCUD-ER has same warhead of SCUD-B range is reduced to 700km
[1] Schiller, M and Schmucker, R. H., 2016, Flashback to the Past: North Korea’s “New” Extended-Range Scud
2019년 11월 13일 수요일
Missile-SIM : Performance Evaluation for Iskander / Kh-47M2 Kinzhal & ATACMS+Booster
Previous Work Status
Initial Version of Missile-SIM for Performance evaluation
Aerodynamic Validation of Missile-SIM for Trajectory
AIM-120C Study using Missile-SIM : Part 1 - Sensitivity
AIM-120C Study using Missile-SIM : Part 2 - Launch Condition
AIM-120C Study using Missile-SIM : Part 2 - Launch Condition - revision
Patch note of Missile-SIM : Guidance Algorithm is added w/ Real-Time plot
W.I.P status of Missile-SIM : Addition of Air-propulsion part 1
W.I.P status of Missile-SIM : Addition of Air-propulsion part 2
AIM-120C Study using Missile-SIM : Part 3 - CUDA / LREW / METEOR types. 1 : Baseline Comparison
AIM-120C Study using Missile-SIM : Part 3 - CUDA / LREW / METEOR types. 2 : Sensitivity Analysis
AIM-120C Study using Missile-SIM : Part 3 - CUDA / LREW / METEOR types. 3 : Few mentions
W.I.P status of Missile-SIM : Addition of 3D Coordinate
W.I.P status of Missile-SIM : Development of Few generic bodies for Further Missile-SIM
Missile-SIM : Performance Evaluation for ATACMS class missile
Missile-SIM : Performance Evaluation for KM-SAM class missile
Missile-SIM : Effectiveness of Rocket motor for free-fall bomb
1. Modeling of Iskander / Kh-47M2 & ATACMS + Booster - OUTDATED
Geometry related to aerodynamics Iskander and its modeling is shown below.
- This article is outdated; New Ballistics Analysis based on this CFD result is here
Except booster part, ATACMS part is same as the previous model
(Missile-SIM : Performance Evaluation for ATACMS class missile)
2. Trajectory Simulation of the Iskander / Kinzhal and ATACMS w/ Booster
Based on the modeled missile, I simulated a few trajectory options using Missile-SIM.
1) Normal version of Iskander (~170km)
It has normal short range ballistic missile characteristics; peak altitude is about 40km w/ <M5 burn out velocity.
2) Iskander-M (~250km)
Bigger ISP, slightly larger amount of propellant and better trajectory gives significantly better range than the normal version.
3) Iskander-M (~350km)
The projectile after burning whole fuel has less drag at the high altitude. Indeed if the missile glide less deeper angle, range could be extended.
4) Iskander-M (~500km)
Its maximum range is about 500km. Iskander-M missile could cover the entire Korean peninsula.
5) Iskander-M as Kinzhal = Air-launched Iskander from MiG-31 (~170km)
If the Iskander-M were launched at 40,000ft w/ M1.3, range is increased about 1,000km class. Because missile enter the 'almost-no-drag' altitude, missile has much higher burn-out velocity and longer range.
6) ATACMS+Booster (~500km)
If we given the ATACMS booster, range become similar to that of Iskander-M. (However, ATACMS has smaller warhead weight than that of Iskander-M)
7) Air-Launched ATACMS+Booster
JTACMS in the previous article (Missile-SIM : Performance Evaluation for ATACMS class missile) shows about 250km class range.
If we attached booster for JTACMS, what happens?
Similar to Iskander-M, it could extend its range for more than 1,000km.
If we attached booster for JTACMS, what happens?
Similar to Iskander-M, it could extend its range for more than 1,000km.
3. Conclusion
Boosted ATACMS and Iskander-M model are compared for ground and air-launched version. Both missiles having several hundred kilometer range could have extended range using air-launched method.
I also tested hypersonic glider or three-stage rocket however, these have almost infinite range as intercontinental weapon. Indeed, I decided not to study seriously about them (as shown below)
From now on, I will focus on the upgrade of Missile-SIM as Flight-SIM for more advanced vehicle
(Supersonic Civil Aviation Area)
Appendix : Hypersonic Glider case (Almost act like a LEO projectile)
Boosted ATACMS and Iskander-M model are compared for ground and air-launched version. Both missiles having several hundred kilometer range could have extended range using air-launched method.
I also tested hypersonic glider or three-stage rocket however, these have almost infinite range as intercontinental weapon. Indeed, I decided not to study seriously about them (as shown below)
From now on, I will focus on the upgrade of Missile-SIM as Flight-SIM for more advanced vehicle
(Supersonic Civil Aviation Area)
Appendix : Hypersonic Glider case (Almost act like a LEO projectile)
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